Monthly Travel Indicators Summary - January 2024
Visit California and third-party data sets
Report (pdf) PDF
(Date of Publication: March 6, 2024)
Summary compilation of key indicators and statistics from a variety of Visit California and third-party data sets for the reporting month.
MAJOR TAKEAWAYS
Executive Summary Domestic
Macroeconomic
- Economic growth and consumer spending are expected to slow in 2024, but January’s strong job numbers and higher-than-expected inflation rate sent mixed signals.
- Inflation was 3.1%, down from the prior month but higher than economists’ forecasts. The U.S. average retail price for a gallon of gas continued to decline and was $3.20 (vs. $3.26 the previous month). The California equivalent price was $4.48 (vs. $4.56 the preceding month).
- Approximately 353,000 jobs were added to the economy, an increase over last month’s 333,000 jobs (adjusted upwards). The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 3.7% for the third month.
- The University of Michigan tracked U.S. consumer sentiment on the economy to 78.8, up significantly from the 69.7 measurement in December.
Consumer Sentiment
- Overall, U.S. consumer sentiment was comparable to the prior month, while California residents were somewhat more pessimistic about their financial outlook relative to previous months.
- The incidence of U.S. consumers planning domestic leisure travel in the next 12 months was holding steady at 49% (compared to 47% the prior month and 48% a year ago).
- According to YouGov, the price of travel continued to be the primary barrier, with 42% of domestic consumers citing this factor (flat from the prior month).
- Nearly a third of American and California resident travelers (31% and 34%, respectively) felt optimistic about their current financial situation relative to a year ago. They are even more confident about their future economic situation (48% of the U.S. and 51% of California residents expect more positive). The California measures have declined in recent months relative to the overall U.S. measures for both questions.
- A majority of American travelers said travel was a budget priority (52%, flat from the prior month). Californians are likelier to say travel is a budget priority relative to the overall U.S. (57%). The California measurement has also declined.
- American travelers were excited about future travel, with 85% of U.S. travelers (and 88% of California residents) saying they were excited about leisure travel in the next 12 months.
Lodging
- With travel demand normalizing and showing lower year-over-year growth rates, January’s metrics were mainly flat to the prior year.
- Room demand remained down 10% from 2019 levels. Room demand growth in the state was flat year over year, with the San Francisco Bay Area, Central Coast, and Los Angeles County regions showing slight growth year over year. Room demand in the state was down 10% from 2019 levels.
- California’s monthly occupancy rate was 57% (-1% YOY), marking 10 months of consecutive year-over-year declines.
- The state's ADR was $183 (+2% YOY, and RevPAR was $104 (flat YOY).
- Group room demand was also flat year-over-year but down 31% from 2019 levels.
Airlift
- Passenger traffic and airlift growth rates have also normalized, growing slower than prior months.
- Sixty-four million passengers were screened at TSA checkpoints for the month (+6% YOY). Passenger traffic growth rate slowed to under 10% for the first time since 2021.
- There were 8.7 million non-stop seats to California destinations for the month (-3% YOY).
Forecast/Travel Spending
- Domestic visitor spending is expected to reach $130B in 2024. According to U.S. Travel, visitor spending in January was up 2% year over year.
- According to the Visit California February 2024 forecast, domestic visitor spending in California is expected to reach $130 billion in 2024, with $101 billion in leisure spending and $30 billion in business spending. Leisure spending is forecast to grow at a rate of 3% and business spending at a rate of 10% relative to 2023.
- U.S. Travel’s estimate for California for the month showed total visitor spending up 2% year-over-year.
Executive Summary International
Forecast
- International travel spending in California is forecasted to fully recover in 2024, driven by Mexico, Canada, and key overseas markets.
- International visitor spending in the state is forecast to reach $29B in 2024, according to the February 2024 forecast.
- North American neighbors Mexico and Canada are forecasted to be California’s largest spending markets at $4.6B and $3.9B, respectively.
- China and India are the largest overseas markets at $2.2B and $1.8B in visitor spending.
- While most of California’s 13 opportunity markets will have fully recovered to prepandemic spending levels in 2024, China’s recovery is forecast to reach 81%.
Consumer Sentiment
- International leisure travel intent remained robust in California’s opportunity markets, while travel prices remained the top barrier in all markets.
- On average, across California’s target markets, 43% of international consumers said they were planning international leisure travel in the next 12 months, up 2 points from the prior month and from 38% a year ago. The markets with the highest propensity for travel abroad were the Middle East (61%), Nordics (59%), and Germany (58%).
- Travel prices remained the primary barrier to travel (44% citing travel price, +1 pt MOM). Canada (53%), South Korea (52%), Australia (51%), and France (50%) were the markets with consumers most likely to indicate prices were a barrier to travel.
- Safety and health concerns remained secondary barriers in the Asia Pacific and Middle East markets.
Airlift/Arrivals
- International airlift continued strong growth in January, with most international markets fully recovering. Arrivals from California’s opportunity markets also grew.
- There were 1.5M non-stop seats from California’s opportunity markets for the month, a 17% year-over-year growth rate. Airlift from China grew in January with 56K seats, up nearly 600% from 2023.
- Arrivals through California’s ports of entry were up 30% year over year but down 26% from 2019 levels for California’s opportunity markets. China arrivals recovered 48% for the month.
- California’s share of international arrivals for the month based on First Intended Address (FIA) completions was 15%, an improvement over last year’s 14% share.